Leads & Introductions
Members introduced themselves and announced leads.

Member Reports
Three members recently had surgery...Carole Weishaar, Ryan Bohlander (knee surgery) and Don Ellis.  All are doing well.

We are in the process of finishing up our MABE taxes and will even have a refund coming!

Dave Lathrop is happy to announce that he and his wife are adopting two children.

Bio Photos
Several members have not had their pictures taken.  Herb Stokes will be setting up at MABE on Friday February 12th.  Please make sure to be here if you need to be photographed.  

Member Spotlight
This week's spotlight is Erin LaGrassa.  Please keep this member top of mind this week for referrals.

Upcoming Speaker Schedule
January 29 - Dave Crissman (Topic - Being a MABE Board Member)
February 5 - Guest Speaker (Topic - Retaining Employees)
February 12 - Jeopardy

Featured Program - Panel Discussion on "Commercial & Residential Real Estate Investments"
(Panel - Joe Hesch, Jake Ulrich, Andy Jensen, Bob Becker, Denver Johnson)

Should we have new housing starts?  I am hearing conflicting reports. 
It is predicted that we are not expected to see recovery in this area until 2014.  The reason is loss of new jobs. 

What do we do about this?
If you stop housing starts, think about how many construction jobs will be lost.  We have to be careful.  There are so many people involved in the construction industry.  Commercial trends always follows residential.  We are one of the hardest hits states and it will take us longer to recovery.  We have a surplus of housing and buildings space for lease. 

Back in the 50's and 60's our economy was based on agriculture.  Will they bring this industry back?
The land is gone, sold for commercial use and homes.  The kids have no desire to do the hard farming work that their parents did.  And it is almost cost prohibited.  They are doing it in Detroit.  Another reason we can't do it hear is because of water limitations.  Another reason we can't go back is that our population is not dying off as fast.  We need places to live. 

Are you seeing TARP money or impact from the government allocations of that money?
You wish it would be used for the purpose intended but it is not.  A bank has two choices right now, take a loss or try to retain it and work it out.  Everybody has there own opinion on what to do.  From consumer lending standpoint, the TARP money isn't doing a whole lot for us.  Without TARP we would have entered another great depression. 

There has been pretty steady demand for retail homes.  Is there anything on the horizon in 2010 that will change that demand?
The inventory will continue to grow.  There are still more foreclosures to come and new builds coming.  They are offering a lot of incentives.   Buyers are out there but they may not qualify.  The limited loan options available are limiting the number of potential buyers. 

2009 was a very stabilizing year.  I am interested 2010.  What are things that will drive the trends down?
Much of the inventory is currently owned by banks.  They will move through short sales.  All the 2005 ARMS are coming due this year and putting people in the position of having to work with the banks.  The short sale or foreclosure process is 6 months to a year before the bank even takes ownership.  A lot of that will add to the inventory in the coming year.

Are we going to have to re-examine what we consider good credit in the future (foreclosures)?
Mortgage insurance is harder to come by whereas it used to be a given.  Conventional loans will start require 20% down.  FHA isn't increasing down payments but changing other aspects.  Closing costs don't change much but the seller can't contribute as much.  A perfect storm is going to occur in 2010.  Whatever recovery we think we may be seeing, a lot of things (tax credits) are coming to an end so we are in a real touchy phase.   Economically we will start to slow down again.  But I think we will see an acceleration a the end of the year.  The government can't keep giving and giving forever.  One of the things the government could do is force the margins on loan rates.   Overtime, they will return to normal.  A lot of homes sitting vacant are trashed.  Banks know that if people are in the homes they will likely take care of it so they have an incentive to help you stay in it - they are not just being nice.

The next 12-months will be difficult from a business standpoint.  I would do what you can to eliminate debt.

It seems to me that the recovery we have seen has been, unfortunately, motivated by fraud and greed.  The motivation of greed is excessive.  It is subjective.  I think we have a problem with our recovery if we continue this trend.   

One thing people don't realize, if you had a prior car loan with, for example GMAC, and you paid them on time they will loan to you again regardless of current circumstances.  They operate with blinders on.